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- Authors : Madhav Prasad Koirala
- Paper ID : IJERTV8IS010007
- Volume & Issue : Volume 08, Issue 01 (January – 2019)
- Published (First Online): 05-01-2019
- ISSN (Online) : 2278-0181
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Risks Factors in Housings are Defective Due to Lack of Management in Life-Cycle of Project
Risks Factors in Housings are Defective Due to Lack of Management in Life-Cycle of Project
Madhav Prasad Koirala, Ph.D. Associate Professor, Pokhara University School of Engineering, Kaski, Nepal
AbstractRisks in Housing in developing countries construction projects are ongoing process and always may happen at any time. In the entire project life cycle, better to break down in different units or phases and the every risk factors in the projects must be examine, identification probable risks. Thorough literatures have been reviewed and quantities interview have been conducted and divided into five categories. Risk factors analysis or assessment in the construction projects is another step which helps to know the severity or impact in the project. Based on the probable severity, risks in housing construction projects have to take the measurement which is known as risk ranking. Finally, Risks Response Plan (RSP) must be made in the construction project. Depending on the severity of the probable risks, it can be categories based on its ranking. Lastly if risk is high simply reject the project, if risk is low accept the project and if risk out of capacity but can accept than let it to be transfer to other party. In Nepal, particularly housing sector no one developer is bothering about the risks factors.
Keywords Risk exploration, risk assessment, Real estate, Life- cycle and housing
The risks in housing in developing countries deals, during the project life cycle, project events are not executed as planned due to varies risks factors. Generally every events are associated to time, cost and the quality of the project which leads the question of productivity of the project. So before carry out the work carefully examine to explore and identify the risks factors, analysis or assess, ranking and making the risks response plan is necessary work for successful execution of the projects. No one construction project is risk free in the universe. Normal theoretical process is Identify, Assessment, Rank and Response the risks. Risk can manage by adopting the following shear, transfer or accept method. The following are the identifying features of construction project.
Housing and real estate projects are unique with each other. The reasons being, Various projects are unique even though they are located at the same location or the same site, Financial amount of various projects differ from each other, Team and investor people who are interested to carry out the project is differ from project to project, Housing and real estate construction projects are complex, Risks in housing and real estate construction projects are very high. Normally, the risks that can categorized are time, cost, quality but developing country like Nepal, political, legal, Institutional and number of risks has to face. Due to the above reasons cost of a construction project became very high and those projects have to compensate to lots of risks activities. As a result, it is
not possible to control the cost for the particular project within the budget to completion of it. Also it is very difficult to complete the project within the expected time period and the standard quality; Of course, it can involve every field of professionals in a construction project. But it depends on the complexity and the size of the project, is necessary to have qualified and well experienced professionals to acquire the project as expected, Housing and real estate projects are always an input to another construction project. For example, construction of Housing, Project is an input to a construction industry, Most of the Housing and real estate construction projects are complex in the sense of huge the resource involvement is also very high. Particularly, the resources related to the construction project are material, labour and plant, Construction project duration is very high and Construction project cost is very high.
Housing has been recognized as one of the three basic needs, the other two being food and shelter (Pokharel, 2006). According to (Javier F., 2007), Projects are commonly over budget and behind schedule, to some extent because uncertainties are not accounted for in cost and schedule estimates. Time, cost and risk of project delivery are among the crucial aspects of each project In order to maximize the return, both the client and contractor would strive to optimize the project duration and cost concurrently (Lakshminarayan et all, 2011). If risks are to be properly managed, it is also self- evident that the risk management process must be present, transparent and activated within each phase. (Osipova, 2008) According to (Baccarini & Archer, 2001), Project risk management literature commonly describes the need to rank and priorities risks in a project in order to focus the risk management effort on the higher risks in construction projects. This approach can also be applied to the risk ranking of projects.
NEED FOR STUDY
The Housings projects success or fails depends on the risk factors are main aim of any project. Co-ordination plays an important role in this success parameter having considerable effect on the outcome of a construction project. Despite the housing, projects tend to fail or fall short in success. This leads to the need of studying the coordination techniques, the current issues and methods to improve them. In Nepal, every year migration taking place more than 5% in average. So every year ten of thousand of housings or apartment units are being demanded based on high, medium, low and marginalized economic level of income group. Affordability
needs to be identified based on research work and the income level of groups (Koirala,2017)
Objective of the Study
Objective of this study is to identify the Risk factors in Housing project involved in all the stages of the project life cycle and to determine the level of efforts required to achieve the Management goals for the issues in project life.
Limitations of the Study
The study conducted is a project specific study. Qualitative interview and opinion survey is through responses of personnel from Client, Contractor and Professional and it reflects their perspective based on their experience.
Through literature study five major categories dealt the goals were identified. From the study of mentioned area, coordination tasks which occurred during the life cycle were studied and were classified in these goals. Major tasks which impacted the project and in which a high level of coordination efforts was required were then studied in depth. The nomenclature followed for these tasks are issues.
What is Risk?
Before going to new terms let me try to define what does mean by risk? According to Holton Glyn, (2004) Points out that the finance discipline lacks a formal, uniformly accepted definition of the word "risk" In his Nobel Prize-winning work on portfolio theory Harry Markowitz avoided defining the term even though risk minimization is central to his model. Holton argues that risk includes two components: exposures and uncertainty. This means that while we ponder risk we believe we are subject to it and we are not sure what will happen. So we can define perceived exposure or perceived uncertainty, and therefore perceived risk. But there is no such thing as true risk. (Strong,R.A. 2008) From this article mentioned about the perceived exposure and uncertainty so as perceived risks. This article does nt give good definition for my "risk" term.
According to Vaugham (1997), risk is as a condition of the real work in which there is an exposure to adversity. More specifically, risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
In the same way Al-Bahar (1998) has also tried to define risks as the exposure to the chance of occurrences of events adversely or favorably affecting project objective as a consequence of uncertainty. According to R.A. Strong, (2008) defining the risk is an investment term that everyone knows, yet people often use it incorrectly.
Therefore in this context, risk may be defined as the chances of losses housing and real estate project during construction phases.
I Housing projects to maintain the features
According to Iain Atherton & Carol McNaughton Nicholls, (2008), considers the effectiveness of Housing First and its applicability to the European context. Housing First approaches explicitly incorporate secure tenures as an intrinsic
part of support packages for homeless people who have mental health and substance misuse problems. We contend that the evidence from the growing body of research in North America makes a compelling argument for the explicit incorporation of housing at an early stage as an effective means of addressing homelessness. The North American studies suggest that even those who might be considered most difficult to house can, with help, successfully maintain their own tenancies. Evidence suggests no deleterious effects on mental health or increased drug misuse and indeed, possibly some benefits. Economic analysis also demonstrates advantages; the cost of providing support to people in Housing First programmed being considerably less than if they were to remain homeless. The introduction of a Housing First approach, however, is by no means a simple philosophy that can be applied everywhere. Rather, local contexts will require some tailoring to meet local needs. Research is therefore needed to highlight obstacles to implementation and means by which these can be overcome. Furthermore, housing on its own is not a solution. Rather, having a secure tenure has to be seen as a part of an integrated support package. Recent moves to introduce Western project management processes into China recall the need for caution in transferring management theories and practices across cultures. Not only are there a number of well-known contrasts between Chinese and Western cultural values that shape management beliefs in important ways, but also evidence shows that the cross-cultural transfer of management processes in general is not always successful (Chen & Partington ,2004).
II Why does it occur, who face it and when?
Every BOT project is subjected to multiple risks (Bokharey et all, 2010). Thus it has become the responsibility and liability of the promoter to mitigate the risks to ensure the success of a BOT project by recruiting a strong management team. According to (Ismail et all, 2007), the experience and successful in the construction industry nowadays depends not only on the traditional civil engineering programs. Project management, over the last 25-30 years, has developed into a methodological and systematic way of dealing with all aspects of construction projects. The wide range of topics that are now representing the domain of construction management is more than emphasis on scheduling, cost control and resource management. They include, but are not limited to, engineering project management concepts, quality management system, environmental management system and techniques for analysis the potential success factors. (Akintoye A., 1996),Risk analysis and management in construction describes, on the basis of a questionnaire survey of general contractors and project management practices, the construction industry's perception of risk associated with its activities and the extent to which the industry uses risk analysis and management techniques. It concludes that risk management is essential to construction activities in minimizing losses and enhancing profitability. Construction risk is generally perceived as events that influence project objectives of cost, time and quality. Risk analysis and management in construction depend mainly on intuition, judgment and experience. Formal risk analysis and management techniques are rarely used due to a lack of
knowledge and to doubts on the suitability of these techniques for construction industry activities.
Lack of Management during life cycle
The findings of our research show that risk management is not carried out systematically in all phases of a project. The actors participation in the risk management process is generally limited by their roles in the project. The absence of systematic risk management is especially noted in the programming (planning) phase, where it arguably has the greatest potential impact. The production phase is where most interest and activity is to be found. Unfortunately, this can easily prove to be too late in the day to mitigate some risks, including those that might have been avoided at an earlier phase. Whilst this is self-evident, scant attention to early identification of risks confirms this practice as commonplace. As a concept and matter of practice, the communication of risks between the actors simply does not work to the extent that it must if projects are to be delivered with certainty, irrespective of the form of procurement. If risks are to be properly managed, it is also self-evident that the risk management process must be present, transparent and activated within each phase. It is the lack of an iterative approach to risk management that is a weakness in current procurement practices and this aspect must be addressed if the risk management process is to serve projects and, thus, their clients. Implicit in this thinking is that the projects other actors will be better able to cope with circumstances that might threaten the time, cost or function of the project if they can be engaged in the risk management process from the outset. A shift from project-oriented to process-oriented risk management is required in order to manage project risks successfully (Osipova, 2008). The international construction market has always been and continues to be risky. Yet owners and contractors expend little time and effort on assessing and strategically planning for known, probable, or even unknown risks. Without a proactive risk management process, problems that occur on a project are likely to increase delays and costs. Identifying, allocating, and managing risks at the front end of the project planning process can improve project performance. International project risk assessment planning is a process that assists all project participants to handle risks before they become significant problems. Although a project can be divided into a number of separate phases and the risks assessed and managed as such, there is a need to manage risks as a continuum over the project life cycle. Maximizing the process of assessing and managing project risks requires initial recognition combined with a systemic method of monitoring changes and impacts over time. Risks and their impacts have a greater tendency to vary over the life cycle of international capital projects. Some risks remain constant while other arise and diminish as projects progress. Improvements in project performance can be achieved by recognizing which risks occur across the entire project life cycle and giving them due consideration. Within the project life cycle, optimal risk identification and assessment procedures and timing, as well as the identification of the most favorable decision points need to be outlined (Walewski & Edward, 2003).
Lack of Management: for Identification, Analysis, Measuring and Response the Risk
Whenever we get sick, we move to clinic and doctor carry out the diagnosis to know the cause of the ick. After getting the diagnosis report we get the medicines to recover. In the same way, the housing and real estate sector getting the number of risks during construction Phases I must have to find out that what types of risks that developers or construction industries are facing that is going to identify analysis or assess, what is the rank magnitude of each risk and what would be its response plan that is trying to described by the help of different literature given below. It is important to manage the multifaceted risks associated with international construction projects, in particular in developing countries, not only to secure work but also to make profit. A risk model, named Alien Eyes Risk Model, which shows the hierarchical levels of the risks and the influence relationship among the risks, is also proposed. Based on the findings, a qualitative risk mitigation framework was finally proposed which will benefit the risk management of construction project in developing countries. (Wang et all, 2004). The analysis and findings in this paper also present valuable data for the Chinese government and local partners to have an in-depth understanding of the risk environment to the operation of Sino foreign joint ventures. Such understanding is very important for implementing further effective measures to ensure the right direction of future development and create a more attractive market to overseas construction professionals (Shen et all, 2001). As we have seen, the risks in overseas construction projects can be enormous. In order to manage them effectively, a comprehensive method for managing risks during the construction process, particularly in the pre contracting and post contracting stages, should be applied. The method described in this paper has provided contractors with a supportive framework for the risk management of overseas projects. The method supports a systematic thinking process that classifies risks, identifies risks, assesses risks, and allocates risks. In relation to the risk identification and classification processes for overseas projects, the need for a global view has been emphasized, not only in terms of the project itself, but also in terms of the macro levels of the political and economic situations in the region (Zhi, 1995).
Avoiding construction claims and disputes requires understanding of the contractual terms, early non adversarial communication, and understanding of the causes of claims. The present paper addresses the latter issue by presenting the results of a pilot study undertaken by the University of Calgary and Revay and Associates Ltd. (Semple et all, 1994) Model for International Construction Risk Assessment presents a risk assessment model for international construction projects. The International Construction Risk Assessment Model (ICRAM-1) assists the user in evaluating the potential risk involved in expanding operations in an international market by analyzing risk at the macro (or country environment), market, and project levels. The paper discusses some of the existing models for country risk assessment, presents potential risk indicators at the macro, market, and project levels, and explains the ICRAM-1 methodology through an applied example. The ICRAM-1 provides a structured approach for evaluating the risk indicators involved
in an international construction operation and is designed to examine a specific project in a foreign country. It can be used as a tool to quantify the risk involved in an international construction investment as one of the preliminary steps in project evaluation. Four main results are obtained from the ICRAM-1 analysis: (1) High-risk indicators; (2) impact of country environment on a specific project; (3) impact of market environment on a specific project; and (4) overall project risk (Hastak & Shaked, 2000). Results found the sole technique used in risk identification to be brainstorming, through which more than thirty risks were identified and classified under six risk categories: planning, pre- commissioning, design, land purchasing, construction and operation. Thirteen risks were identified as significant based on their estimated probability of occurrence had the project been developed via public procurement. The results of this research will enable public sector clients like the NHS Trust to not only identify the significant risks, which will allow them to focus more attention on developing appropriate mitigation strategies and contingency plans, but also to improve its risk identification process through the use of other techniques in order to support findings from the brainstorming process (Ghazali & Kabir, 2009). According to (Arizaga, 2007), Projects are commonly over budget and behind schedule, to some extent because uncertainties are not accounted for in cost and schedule estimates. Research and practice is now addressing this problem, often by using Monte Carlo methods to simulate the effect of variances in work package costs and durations on total cost and date of completion. However, many such project risk approaches ignore the large impact of probabilistic correlation on work package cost and duration predictions. Often, construction projects fail to achieve their time, budget, and quality goals. This is frequently due to the failure of the contractor to analyze and assess unanticipated risks. According to (Wang et all, 2000), BOT (built operate and transfer) will be an essential part of the financing necessary for the massive investment in infrastructure. However, Chinas unique culture and social system, which are not familiar to many foreign investors/contractors, make the tendering system in China different from that of western countries. The effective evaluation and management of critical risks is especially crucial for successful investments in Chinas infrastructure projects. This paper discussed the unique/critical political and force majeure risks associated with BOT projects in China. The identified risks in their criticality sequence are the Chinese parties reliability and creditworthiness, change in law, force majeure, and delay in approval, expropriation, and corruption. The measures for mitigating each of these risks have been evaluated by respondents. Most of the measures are regarded as effective or very effective, and only a few of them are regarded as fairly effective. The most effective measures to mitigate the risks are
(1) for the Chinese entities reliability, obtain accurate financial information about the Chinese entities so that the most capable ones can then be chosen; (2) for force majeure risk, insure all insurable force majeure risks; (3) for change in law, obtain governments guarantees on tariff adjustment or extension of concession period; (4) for delay in approval, establish a one-stop agency for all approvals; (5) for expropriation risk, having a combination of international
financing and insurance policies (regarded as the most effective measure (Wang, et all, 2000). According to (Nuruddin and Rohman, 2011) this paper presents a model to estimate cost contingency for a construction project based on risk analysis and fuzzy expert system. This model can accommodate contractors experience and judgment. The validation exercise indicates that the model is acceptable since the error resulted by the model is Â±18% compared to the actual project cost contingency values. According to (Baccarini & Archer, 2001), Project risk management literature commonly describes the need to rank and priorities risks in a project in order to focus the risk management effort on the higher risks. This approach can also be applied to the risk ranking of projects. This paper describes the use of a methodology for the risk ranking of projects undertaken by the Department of Contract and Management Services (CAMS) – a government agency in Western Australia (WA)
Lack of Coordination during Conflict between Client, contractor and consultancy
We conduct a within-country empirical analysis of the correlates of conflict intensity in Nepal, analogous tocross- country analyses of civil wars. Our within-country approach enables us to examine the occurrence of the same insurgency across different parts of the country and over time. We find that conflict intensity is higher in places with greater poverty and in places where geographical characteristics favor insurgents. These findings are consistent with cross-country results, suggesting that similar factors are relevant in both settings. We find suggestive evidence that the association between poverty and the number of conflict-related casualties is driven by the fact that poorer districts are more likely to be involved earlier in the conflict. In contrast, geography is not likely to predict which places are involved earlier in the conflict, but does make conflict more severe after it has started. Other potential factors identified in the cross-country literature, such as social polarization, are not found to affect the levels of violence in the Nepalese civil war, once the effects of poverty and geography have been accounted for."(Do & Iyer, 2009)
A Research not yet done
In Nepal Population has being increasing and internal and external migration is continue process in city from the rural and few out of country too. So professionals and business men who are dreaming minimum requirement food for eat cloths for wear and own house for shelter. So housing is being one basic need. During past decade lot of housing project boomed in the country. In recent days housing and real estate project are stagnation. Developers' Companies are facing risks. Professional developers are working slowly and some developers had changed their field, some are waiting and see position. During study, it is found in Nepal, even not one in project, literatures and research in Risks in housing and real estate related literature have been reviewed. When professional found the problems, then majority had closed the project, few are waiting for favorable condition and only few are proceedings their projects in slow manner. Suddenly they face the legal, financial, organizational, political, and socio- economic and much more risk factors. In Nepal no one have
carry out such type of research which bust up the housing and real estate project as well as the construction industry sectors.
B Analysis and discussion
Regarding the risks in housing and real estate, explore and identification, analysis or assessment, rank them and risk response plan no one have given concrete theory or idea. But many researchers have indicated some guidance in their research paper.
According to (Wang et all, 2004), It is taking important work the risks factors associated with international construction projects, particularly in developing countries. His research paper seeks to identify and evaluate these risks and their effective mitigation measures and to develop a risk management framework which the international investors/ developers/ contractors can adopt when contracting construction work in developing countries, this research try to explore and identify, analyze or asses as per its magnitude and mitigation measures, similarly (Zhi, 1995) broadly discussed on his research that classifies risks, identifies risks, assesses risks, and allocates risks. He also criticized that in relation to the risk identification and classification processes for overseas projects, the need for a global view has been emphasized, not only in terms of the project itself, but also in terms of the macro levels of the political and economic situations in the region. Similarly according to (Akintoye, 1996), it concludes that risk management is essential to construction activities in minimizing losses and enhancing profitability. Construction risk is generally perceived as events that influence project objectives of cost, time and quality. Risk analysis and management in construction depend mainly on intuition, judgment and experience in his research paper. According to (Arizaga, 2007), Projects are commonly over budget and behind schedule, to some extent because uncertainties are not accounted for in cost and schedule estimates. This model can accommodate contractors experience and judgment. The validation exercise indicates that the model is acceptable since the error resulted by the model is Â±18% compared to the actual project cost contingency values, and according to (Adnan, 2008) is raising the issues about changes of design scope by employer, over interference by employer consultant, variations with changes in design criteria, conflict in interest in design between employer and contractor, lack in employer's brief, force majored & social disorder and employer's cause delays are critical risk factors in design and built(D&B) projects.
From above mentioned review of the literature the following key results can be concluded;
Risks in construction projects are ongoing process and always may happen. In the whole project life cycle, better to break down in different phases and risks in the projects must be examine, explore by means of applying various technique for identification probable risks. Risks analysis or assessment in the construction projects is another step which helps to know the severity or impact in the project. Based on the probable severity, risks in construction projects have to take the measurement which is known as risk ranking. Finally, Risks Response Plan (RSP) must be made in the construction
project. Depending on the severity of the probable risks, it can be categories based on its ranking. If the probable severity of risks is high then simply reject the risk in project, if it is within the tolerance accept it. Similarly we can transfer or retention the probable risks as per its magnitude. In Nepal, particularly housing and real estate sector no one developer is bothering about the risks factor, since no research have been carry out so far in Nepal. I can claim the use of the word risk as a rank scale. Particularly risk associated with the cost within an appropriate approach for structuring all factors as legal, financial, Political, technological, environmental and other factor which probability is more in construction projects.
We propose to all construction industries and developers to examine, identify, assess, measure and make Risk Response Plan in every phase of the project life of construction industries, similarly it is suggested to all government authorities to submit the risk management proposal before assign or approval the construction projects.
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