Factors Effecting Dividend Policy of Real Estate Companies Listed on Vietnam Stock Market

Factors Effecting Dividend Policy of Real Estate Companies Listed on Vietnam Stock Market

Pham Dan Khanh

National Economics University

Abstract – Identifying the determinants of dividend policy is essential for enhancing firm value, particularly for real estate enterprises operating in emerging markets. Using panel data from Vietnamese listed companies during 20162021, correlation and multivariate regression analysis with SPSS 22.0 were employed to test five potential factors: current or expected income, firm size, financial leverage, liquidity, and the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. The results demonstrate that dividend payout ratios are significantly influenced by firm size, current or expected income, and financial leverage, whereas liquidity and the P/E ratio show no notable effect. Among the significant variables, current or expected income exerts the strongest impact on dividend policy, highlighting the importance of profitability in guiding payout decisions. Dividend policy in Vietnamese real estate enterprises therefore reflects both performance and capital structure. The findings provide practical guidance for managers in designing sustainable payout strategies and offer investors valuable insights into dividend stability and firm value in the Vietnamese stock market.

Keywords: dividend policy, real estate enterprises, Vietnam Stock market

1. INTRODUCTION

   Deciding on dividend policy is an important decision in financial management and also is one of the effective ways to create attractiveness for both domestic and international investors. Dividend policy decides to distribute the enterprises profit in which a business makes the choice whether to use earnings after tax to reinvest or to pay out dividends to shareholders. In terms of corporations, profit after tax is considered as the lowest cost funding source. It is kept to support capital for the company in reinvesting, expanding scale, and approaching a larger project for the development of business networks. However, maintaining a major proportion of retained earnings also makes a companys shares become less attractive. In contrast, shareholders are always desirous of a significant dividend payout ratio, because it is their income from capital that gains from the investment. Generally, company shares having a high dividend payment rate will attract more investors. Consequently, a dividend payment policy still is an issue that is paid much attention by financial managers. The Vietnam stock market taking its place in a group of young countries, is rather volatile, and consists mainly of small-scale businesses. Investors therefore, have difficulty in easily accessing transparent information. The imbalance of the capital market making the financial market distorted as banking credit has been financed short, medium and long term. Hence, the costs of capital from the banks for an enterprise for manufacturing and trading become higher. Dividend policy plays an important role as a signal to attract investors and helps businesses to access medium and long-term capital with lower costs. These factors effect of dividend policy can lead to greatly affect the operation, existence and development of an enterprise in many aspects. Dividend policy is used as a moderator between distributed earnings and distribution and retained earnings to meet the investment and development capital needs of the enterprise, and at the same time to meet the requirements of shareholders to attract investment capital. Therefore, determining the factors affecting dividend policy and building a reasonable dividend payment policy is something that companies cannot ignore when listing on the stock market. Dividend policies commonly applied in joint stock companies are dividend stability policy, dividend surplus policy, fixed payout ratio policy, small dividend payment policy during the year and dividend payment. Additional news at the end of the year

   Along with the development of the economy, joint stock companies in other countries are increasingly looking for solutions to improve dividend policy towards a balance between current dividends for shareholders and the growth of the company in the future such a way as to maximize firm value.

   In the business operations in recent years, listed real estate enterprises have paid more attention to building a reasonable dividend policy. Vietnams real estate group is one of the sectors that has a major impact on economic growth, especially in Vietnam, and the real estate industry has consistently proven to be a highly profitable sector, so it is the subject of this research. However, achieving this goal in the best way is not easy. Therefore, building a reasonable and strategic long-term dividend policy is still a very important issue for the development of listed real estate enterprises in Vietnam.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

   There is a wide and varied literature on dividend policy and the authors do not attempt to provide an exhaustive review of this literature here. Instead, the authors try to outline the main arguments, issue and finding in the literature to date. John Lintner, making foundation for the study of dividend policy, published his research in 1956 which was based on a 600 US listed companies survey. In his view, a stable dividend policy would be a good signal for the market about the business activities as well as stable future cash flows. The managers believed that reducing dividends would create negative and undesirable influences for the company's shares; therefore, enterprises would consider carefully for increase or decrease in dividends during a long term period of an unsustainable growth (decline) to avoid unexpected fluctuations in dividends, thereby maintaining and achieving rate dividend payout target. Based on his studies, Lintner built function setting dividend payout ratio target as follows:

   D* = ri * Pit* it (1)

   Dit = Dt Dt-1 = i + ci * (D*it Di*(t-1)) + uit (2)

   where r is the target pay-out ratio, Pt is the current year's profits after taxes, Dit is the change in dividend payments, and Dt and Dt- 1 are the amounts of dividends paid in the years identified by the dating subscripts t, and i identifies the individual company.

   According to Lintners theory given above, the target payout ratio of company would be affected by the last dividend payout ratio and profit after tax of the company during the studying period.

   In 1962, Gordon claimed a theory that dividends reduced the risks for investors, and was named as The bird-in-the-hand by Miller and Modiglians theory. According to his study, the investors were concerned about risk and preferred dividends received in the present to companys promising prospect with high capital gain in the future. Hence, Gordon indicated that change in the companys dividend payout ratio would change investors risk level when investing in stocks of company. A high dividend payment corporate would reduce the risk or limit uncertainty about future income flows for shareholders, thus attracting more investors, and vice versa. Overall, the psychological behavior of the shareholders would affect dividend policy of the enterprise.

   Beside psychological risk aversion, transaction cost is known as a factor leading investors to consider whether to sell stocks for capital gain or to hold them for periodic dividend payment. When companies pay low dividends or do not pay any dividends, investors tend to sell their shares to get the profit that arises from the transaction costs and brokerage. These costs become expensive with individual stocks and sall volumes, hence the income from capital gains cannot completely replace the dividends income as proposed in the theory of Miller and Modiglian (1961). Obviously, investors would expect to earn a higher dividend payout ratio to reduce costs.

   Agency cost is one of the factors affecting the dividend payments rate. Jensen and Meckiling developed this theory in 1976 through the conflict of interests between managers and shareholders. When a company pays a high dividend payout ratio, cash flow in business administration will be limited. The company must issue additional shares on the market to raise capital to expand the business. Thus, the number of shareholders increases and the company's capital from outside management is used more efficiently, and the interests of shareholders are enhanced. Investors will react positively with information about the high rate of payment dividends

   Based on the role of the corporate management aspect, signal theory stands on a different perspective to explain the dividend policy of the enterprise. According to this theory, Bhattacharya (1980) and John and Williams (1985) indicated that dividend policy was supposed to be a signal to market managers and investors. When the signal of high dividend ratio that contains much positive information about the operations, earnings, and future cash flow of the business is spread, investors will respond respectively upon receiving this signal. A positive signal can make investor desire a companys stocks.

   A high dividend policy will reduce the amount of retained earnings to reinvest in the next business cycle; this makes a company find additional funding sources from outside when it has larger capital requirements. However, raising capital by issuing new shares leads to increasing the cost of capital and issuing costs. Therefore, the corporate governance tends to keep retained earnings to reduce the cost of capital.

   There are many empirical studies done to understand dividend policy issues, especially since the theoretical study of Miller and Modigliani (1961) was published. Most of the studies focus on the factors affecting the dividend policy of enterprises. Among the studies in this field are the studies of the author Black, F., and Scholes M. (1974); Chay, J. B. and Suh, J. (2009); Ahmed and Javid (2009); Mehta (2012); Nguyen, T.T.N. and Bui, P.K. (2019); Kien, D. and Chen, Y. (2020); Ngoc Hung et al., (2019); Thùy, L., & V Hùng, P. (2024). It shows that dividend policy of enterprises is influenced by many factors. Based on the theoretical basis and applied research, the author offers a proposed research model including:

   * Dependent variable

   Dividend policy of the enterprise is usually measured through the indicator of dividend payout ratio (DPR – Dividends Payout Ratio) and dividend per share (DY – Dividends Yield). Therefore, this study will use the DPR indicator as the dependent variable and is calculated as follows:

   DPR =

   DY EPS

   * Independent variables

   The independent variables belonging to the group of internal endogenous factors of the enterprise are selected based on the theory and previous experimental research results. Due to the fact that data are available in Vietnam, this study only focuses on five factors affecting dividend policy of real estate companies listed on HNX and HOSE.

   Current or expected earnings:

   Listed companies that have a dividend policy often determine the level of dividends based on the company's earnings. High-margin companies with stable earnings can manage cash flow better and therefore pay higher dividends. Furthermore, companies with rapid growth often pay higher dividends to attract investors. One factor that officially determines dividend payout is the predicted level of future earnings. Current earnings do not really reflect a company's ability to pay dividends.

   Hypothesis: There is a positive relationship between current or expected earnings and dividend payments of companies.

   Company size:

   According to previous researches made by Chay and Suh (2009), Ahmed and Javid (2009), Mehta (2012); the bigger size firms have, the higher dividend policy they pay and vice versa. As big companies can access easily with many sources from the capital markets and hence, this will lead to raise funds with lower issuing costs and higher agency costs. Therefore, if firms have large size, they will be pay high dividend, ceteris paribus. There has a lot scales to measure a firm size (such as sales, total assets, the capitalize market value, the equity value and so on) but in this research area, the measure used is total assets (Mehta, 2012). Size

   = Total assets

   It can be seen that the size of the company is small, the ability to raise investment capital will be more difficult. Therefore, to ensure reinvested capital, the dividend paid to shareholders is low.

   Hypothesis: There is a relationship between firm size and dividend payments of firms

   Liquidity:

   The agency cost theory found that firms should pay higher dividends to prevent managers from investing capital in inefficient projects and wasteful activities when having more free cash flow but there are not much more good investment. (Amidu và Abor, 2006; Mehta, 2012) Free cash flow has been measured by Cash and cash equivalents, end of year on the total assets.

   Free cash flow = FCF/ Total assets

   There are studies that show that companies with high liquidity often have high dividend payouts. However, there are studies that show that there is a negative relationship between liquidity and dividend payment, companies with good working capital flow pay low dividends. There are studies that show high or low dividend payment results depending on liquidity status. There is some controversy about this relationship. This study will examine whether dividend policy is affected by liquidity.

   Hypothesis: There is a relationship between liquidity and dividend policy of real estate companies on HOSE and HNX.

   Financial leverage:

   Research by Ahmed, Hafeez and Javid, Attiya Yasmin (2008) confirms that financial leverage is an important determinant of dividend payout. Companies with lower financial leverage are more likely to pay dividends than firms with high leverage problems. Therefore, dividend payment depends a lot on the financial leverage of the business because when a business encounters difficulties in paying dividends, it means that the company is having high financial leverage. However, there are studies that show that financial leverage has no relationship with dividend policy. Therefore, we will examine the extent to which the debt ratio affects dividend payments.

   The financial leverage has been measured by the total liabilities over the equity

   Hypothesis: There is a correlation between dividend payments negatively related to financial leverage.

   P/ E Ratio:

   To test whether investment opportunities affect dividend policy, a reasonable variable should be chosen. The first variable for a company's growth and investment opportunities is its P/E ratio. Some researchers have used the P/E ratio as a variable for growth opportunities. The P/E ratio is a good indicator of future growth prospects because it incorporates market judgments about a company's future cash flows. Investors are willing to pay higher to invest in rapidly growing companies, i.e. those companies that

   typically retain their earnings to finance future growth. This is a new factor that has not been mentioned in previous studies, the author has included to study the impact of this factor on the dividend payment policy of real estate companies in Vietnam.

   Hypothesis: Dividend payment is negatively related to P/E ratio.

3. RESEARCH METHOD

   1. Research data

      This research focuses on analyzing the cash dividend payout ratio of 79 real estate companies listed companies with 395 observation on Ho Chi Minh stock market from 2016 to 202. As the HOSE is in the process of improvement and development about both the operation and legal framework, the estimated of converting value of stock dividend into cash is inaccuracy and complexity. Therefore, in this section, cash dividend payout is only considered in researching what the factors have relationship with the HOSE dividend payout ratio from 2016 to 2021.

   2. Research method

      To analyze the collected data, the study used the following section. Quantitative software to determine the factors affecting dividend payout ratio.

      The data is processed through the following two steps:

      Step 1: Descriptive statistics of independent factors from which to evaluate the current status of factors affecting the dividend payout ratio in the sample.

      Step 2: After initial descriptive analysis, run regression by ordinary least squares method, check the following necessary tests:

      • Test ANOVA with F statistic. If test If this is statistically significant, the regression model fits the data set and is usable.

      • Test the regression coefficient t of each factor, if it is statistically significant, conclude that the factor has a significant impact on dividend policy.

      • Test for multicollinearity through the coefficient of variance (VIF). If VIF is < 10, then there is no multicollinearity.

      • Test of autocorrelation through Durbin-Watson comparison system. If the value of Dubin-Watson is between 1 and 3, the conclusion is that there is no autocorrelation between the variables in the model.

      • Test for normally distributed residuals. If Mean is close to 0, and Std.Dv is close to 1, then it can be concluded that the regression equation is normally distributed.

      • Coefficient of determination 2 (R square) and adjusted 2 (Adjust R square): used to assess the fit of the model, the higher the

        2 comparison system, the better the fit with the regression model. The coefficient 2 has been shown to increase with the addition of the independent variable. However, this also proves that not the equation with more variables will fit the data better, there will be cases where the research introduces inappropriate variables into the model (Arkkelin, Daniel, 2014). Therefore, in this study, the adjusted 2 value will be used to evaluate the fit of the model. The adjusted 2 does not exaggerate the model fit

      • Test the factors that affect dividend policy.

      • Estimate the impact of each factor dividend policy.

   3. Regression model and variable definitions

      The model in this research can be written as:

      Regression model:

      = 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5

      Dependent variable:

      DPR = Dividend payout ratio Independent variable

      SIZE = Firm size

      EARNING = Revenue Current or expected earnings LIQID = Liquidity

      LEV = Financial leverage PER = P/E Ratio

      0= Regression coefficient

      1= Regression coefficient for SIZE

      2= Regression coefficient for EARNING

      3 = Regression coefficient for LIQID

      4= Regression coefficient for LEV

      5 = Regression coefficient for PER

      The definitions of the variables are summarized in Table below:

      Variable	Abbreviation	Definition
      Dividend payout ratio	DPR	Cash dividends / Par value
      Firm size	SIZE	Log of total assets
      Profitability	EARNING	Profit after tax / Total outstanding shares
      Liquidity	LIQID	Current assets / Current liabilities
      Financial leverage	LEV	Liabilities / Equity
      P/E Ratio	PER	Price/EPS

4. ANALYZING DATA

   4.1 Correlation analysis between variables

   Table 1. Correlation matrix between dependent and independent variables

   Correlations
   		DPR	SIZE	EARNING	LIQID	LEV	PER
   DPR	Pearson Correlation	1	-0.082	0.893**	0.311	-0.993**	0.115
   SIZE	Pearson Correlation	-0.082	1	.038	.977**	0.038	0.977**
   EARNING	Pearson Correlation	0.893**	0.038	1	0.062	1.000**	0.062
   LIQID	Pearson Correlation	0.311	0.977**	0.062	1	0.062	1.000**
   LEV	Pearson Correlation	-0.993**	0.038	1.000**	0.062	1	0.062
   PER	Pearson Correlation	0.115	0.977**	0.062	1.000**	0.062	1
   **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

   Table 1 shows that the independent variables SIZE, EARNING, LIQD, LEV, PER have a correlation coefficient with the dependent variable DPR, specifically the variable EARNING, LIQD, PER is correlated with the data analysis with variable DPR; variable LEV, SIZE are negatively correlated with variable DPR; The correlation coefficient of the dependent variable with the independent variables ranges from -0.082 to 0.893.

   Table 2. Evaluation of the suitability of multiple linear regression models

   Model Summary
   Model	R	R Square	Adjusted R Square	Std. Error of the Estimate	Durbin-Watson
   1	0.894a	0.589	0.588	10.15433	1.200
   a. Predictors: (Constant), PER, LEV, LIQID, SIZE, EARNING
   b. Dependent Variable: DPR

   Table 2 shows, the value of the coefficient R is 0.894 > 0.5, so this is the appropriate model to use to evaluate the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. On the other hand, the coefficient of determination R2 value is 0.589, means that the constructed linear regression model fits the data 58.9%. In other words, 58.9% of the variance in the predicted dividend payout ratio depends on 5 independent variables, with 95% confidence.

   4.2. Suitability testing of multiple linear regression models

   Table 3. Suitability testing of multiple linear regression models

   ANOVAa
   Model		Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
   1	Regression	16401.062	3	2100.354	26.539	.000b
   	Residual	9343.738	93	102.024
   	Total	24133.800	99
   a. Dependent Variable: DPR
   b. Predictors: (Constant), LIQID, PER, LEV, SIZE, EARNING

   The results from Table 3, show the Sig value. is very small (< 0.05), so the null hypothesis H0 is rejected. This means that the independent variables in the model are linearly correlated with the dependent variable data belonging to, i.e. a combination of independent variables that can explain variation in dependent variable. 4.3. The multiple linear regression model is suitable and usable

   Table 4. Results of regression

   Model		Unstandardized Coefficients		Standardized Coefficients	t	Sig.	Collinearity Statistics
   		B	Std. Error	Beta			Tolerance	VIF
   1	(Constant)	-32.847	14.255		-2.326	0.002
   	SIZE	5.115	3.121	0.185	2.953	0.013	0.646	1.384
   	EARNING	1.847	0.255	0.214	5.137	0.000	0.732	1.377
   	LIQID	0.011	0.121	0.021	0.139	0.348	0.885	1.217
   	LEV	-1.396	0.508	-0.188	-1.153	0.035	0.786	1.415
   	PER	0.081	0.014	0.033	0.248	0.748	0.946	1.015

   Table 4 shows that when considering the independent variables SIZE, EARNING, LEV are all statistically significant due to Sig values. Are all lower than 0.05, showing high reliability? Variables LIQD, PER are not statistically significant due to Sig values being higher than 0.05. The Beta coefficient shows us the impact of independent variables on the dependent variable. In the above table, the variable EARNING, SIZE has a positive effect and the variable LEV has a negative effect. All VIF magnification factors are less than 10, showing that the model does not have multicollinearity.

   1. Test of the variance (residual)

      To test the variance (residual) is constant, we use the scatter plot of the standardized residual and the standardized predicted value. Figure 1 shows that the residuals are randomly scattered around the O axis (which is around the mean of the residuals) over a constant range. This means that the variance of the residual is constant.

      Figure 1. Scatter plot between predicted value and residual from regression

   2. Testing the assumption that residuals are normally distributed

      Residuals may not follow the normal distribution (Arkkelin, Daniel, 2014) for reasons such as incorrect use of histograms (Histogram, PP plot, variances are not constant, normalized residuals are used to check for insufficient residuals. The results from the PP plot histogram show scattering points around the graph as period expectations show that the assumption of the normal distribution of the residuals is not violated. The results from the histogram of the residuals (Figure 3) show that the distribution of the residuals is approximately normal. This means that the hypothesis of the normal distribution of the residuals is not violated.

   3. Assessing the impact of factors affecting dividend payout ratio of real estate enterprises listed on Vietnam stock market.

   Based on Table 4, from the statistical parameters in the regression model, the multiple linear regression equation of the factors affecting the dividend payment rate of real estate enterprises listed on the Vietnam stock market with standardized coefficients as follow:

   DPR= 0.185*SIZE + 0.214*EARNING 0.188*LEV

   Through the above model, the authors see that the variables SIZE, EARNING are positively correlated with the variable DPR. This shows that the dividend payout ratio of real estate enterprises listed on HNX and HOSE is positively correlated with firm size, current or expected income. In which the income variable has the strongest impact. If the income is large, the dividend payout ratio will be high. If other factors remain unchanged, if the size of the enterprise increases by 1 unit, the average dividend payout ratio of the enterprise increases to 0.185 percentage , so the larger the size of the enterprise, the better its ability to pay the higher the dividend. If other factors remain unchanged, if corporate income increases by 1 percentage , the average dividend payout ratio increases by 0.214 percentage, so when corporate income increases, the ability to pay dividends also increases. The variable LEV is negatively correlated with the dividend payout ratio of the firm, which means that if the LEV is high, the dividend payout ratio will be low. According to the above regression results, in the absence of other factors, if LEV increases by 1 percentage, the average dividend payout ratio of the enterprise will decrease by 0.188 percentage. Thus, when a company's financial leverage decreases, its ability to pay dividends will increase

   Figure 2. PP Plot of residuals

   Figure 3. Histogram of residuals normalized distribution

5. CONCLUSION

The research results of the study show that the dividend policy of real estate enterprises listed on the Vietnamese stock market, an emerging market, is affected by the size factors, earnings, financial leverage. These findings are quite consistent with the research results of To, T., Hong Minh, H. T., Kieu Hoa, P. T., & Nam, T. (2020), both affected by the same factors. But the impact is at different levels and directions. According to the results of this study, the company with large scale, high profitability, high dividend payment is consistent with the theoretical forecast, the higher the debt utilization ratio, the lower the dividend payment because the Enterprises want to use after-tax profits for production and business activities to reduce debt. This result is also consistent with the research hypothesis. Vietnam's stock market has continuously declined in recent years, the prices of most stocks have plummeted, causing many investors to suffer heavy losses. Because of this, investors want another source of income to cover a part of their losses, that source of income is dividends. Although it does not completely cover the investor's losses, it does reduce the investor's losses. Understanding this and in order to meet the needs of investors as well as save the company's stock price from

falling too low, affecting production and business activities, joint stock companies tend to dividend payment, so perhaps because of this, the liquidity ratio and P/E ratio are not statistically significant in the research results. The reason is probably because the number of shareholders investing in the real estate enterprises is not much and they are knowledgeable about the industry and business oportunities of the industry, so they are less affected by the customer effect. The factors Liquidity Ratio (LIQD) and P/E ratio (PER) are not statistically significant. This means that if the enterprise applies the form of dividend payment in shares, the stock price will not be affected. Because the distribution or not of dividends depends a lot on the company's earnings, the company has enough cash to pay dividends in cash to shareholders if it could not pay dividends in stock. Having high profit does not mean high liquidity if the profit on the books is there but the actual source of money does not allow to pay dividends. These things mean that the company should maintain a source of retained earnings in the short term to limit borrowing when economic conditions are still intact. No good sign yet. The company needs to improve business performance is necessary to grow and preserve profits. Usually large-scale companies will have more advantages in accessing capital, so for large-scale companies, companies need to take advantage of this advantage to expand their capital access network so that they can access capital. can obtain the lowest cost of capital to finance the investment. This may be more difficult for small businesses, so this study would like to suggest to small and medium enterprises that they should apply a low dividend rate and use profits reasonably to be able to do stable and consistent dividend policy. In recent times, although deposit interest rates have fallen sharply, in fact, lending rates have not decreased correspondingly. And in the context that the lending interest rate market is still high and unstable like Vietnam, retaining a reasonable profit and limiting loans is a priority that should be prioritized not only for medium and large enterprises. small but also for large enterprises when they cannot find low-cost capital sources. From these research results, the author believes that listed real estate enterprises should have a stable dividend growth policy. Companies with large investment capital needs to use financial leverage and high business efficiency can apply the form of dividend payment in shares but will not be affected by the stock price. For stock investors or shareholders in real estate enterprises who want to enjoy higher dividends, two factors should be considered: current or expected income and company size because this factor has a positive relationship and also has very strong statistical significance at the significance level less than 1%. Therefore, both the listed companies and investors can have more information to make their decisions on the HOSE in particular and the Vietnam stock market in general.

Acknowledgment: This research is funded by the National Economics University, Hanoi, Vietnam

Compliance with ethical standards

Authors Contributions: Pham Dan Khanh developed the research idea, designed the model, and drafted the manuscript. Pham Thanh Dat collected and analyzed the data, interpreted the results, and contributed to revising the manuscript. Both authors discussed the findings, approved the final version, and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work.

Conflict of interest

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

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