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Prediction of maximum/minimum temperatures using Holt Winters Method with Excel Spread Sheet for Junagadh Region


Prediction of maximum/minimum temperatures using Holt Winters Method with Excel Spread Sheet for Junagadh Region
Authors : Gundalia Manoj j, Dholakia M. B.
Publication Date: 30-08-2012

Authors

Author(s):  Gundalia Manoj j, Dholakia M. B.

Published in:   International Journal of Engineering Research & Technology

License:  This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Website: www.ijert.org

Volume/Issue:   Vol.1 - Issue 6 (August- 2012)

e-ISSN:   2278-0181

Abstract

Temperature Time Series data are used as major input in many rainfall-runoff models. Temperature prediction is a temporal and time series based process and involve when insufficient data availability. Temperature time series often consist of periodic patterns, i.e. patterns that repeatedly occur in defined periods over time, Holt Winters method is suitable to predict such meteorological process. Microsoft Excel is user friendly and most popular spread sheet program. In this paper, in order to predict maximum and minimum daily temperature time series of Junagadh region with Holt Winters method using excel spread sheet is proposed. The performance of the method is measured by three standard error measures MSE, MAPE and MAD which are found well within the acceptable limits. Results shows the maximum temperature time series exhibit less fluctuation and gave better results as compared to minimum temperature time series.

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